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Article - Become a Suberb Sleuth

New Zealand Herald, 26 August, 2006

By STEPHEN HART

The Where to Live in Auckland team found that Pukekohe was the top performing Auckland suburb in the past year. The average house sale price of $329,000 was 60 per cent above CV, compared to just under 20 per cent for Auckland as a whole.

Auckland's suburbs are in a constant state of flux, ebbing and flowing in the price and popularity stakes. They're not just changing physically - new schools, motorway on-ramps, new shopping malls, etc - but also in terms of their personalities and the people they attract.

A few years ago places like Sandringham, Ellerslie and Onehunga were considered working class areas, but we've seen that change. All three suburbs are popular with young professional couples and we've watched house prices climb significantly as a result.

So, as a buyer how can you identify the suburbs that are likely to provide the highest capital gain? How can you become a suburb sleuth?

At Where to Live in Auckland, we provide readers with a variety of price measurements to reveal the true colours of Auckland's property market. One of the most telling measurements is to see how sales prices are performing compared to capital values (CVs).

Every home has a CV, which is a valuation made every three years for council rating purposes. Like any snapshot measurement, it is only close to accurate for that particular house at the moment it is done.

After that it remains stubbornly static while comparative local sales reflect the reality of what people are prepared to pay for homes in that area.

However, it does provide a yardstick to compare suburb with suburb. In other words, we can see which areas are attracting the largest price premiums above their CV.

These are the suburbs that we see as demonstrating the most popularity and opportunity for future price growth. So, here are some highlights from our latest figures.

The top performing Auckland suburb in the last year was Pukekohe. The average sales price was only $329,000, but that was a massive 60 per cent above CV, compared to just under 20 per cent for Auckland as a whole.

In fact all of the south Auckland suburbs fared well with even the poorest performer, Manukau/Clover Park, achieving a 42 per cent premium. Otara, a suburb seldom associated with positive news, was the third highest of all of Auckland's 54 neighbourhoods, with a premium of 53 per cent.

So, why has the south seen such sudden interest from homebuyers? South Auckland's suburbs have two common characteristics: young families and low cost housing. Take Otara for example - one in three people are aged under 15 years old and the average home price is Auckland's cheapest at $207,000.

It is a similar story in the massive southern suburbs of Mangere, Manurewa, Manukau and Otahuhu. They are all affordable and represent value to two influential buying groups - first-time buyers with limited funds and investors with cash positive expectations.

While this situation remains, these south Auckland suburbs should continue to show good price growth.

The worst performer in terms of price premium compared to CV, was Auckland City (including the CBD, Grafton and Newton) at just 13 per cent. Over the past year, the average apartment sold for $284,000.

The city's buying market is typically investor-centric compared to other neighbourhoods and suffers first at the hands of rising interest rates and falling rents.

Knowledge of a suburb's CV price premium can also help buyers faced with the universal dilemma of wondering whether a house's asking price is reasonable or laughable.

If a home for sale has a CV of $500,000 and its suburb is showing an average premium of 20 per cent, then you should expect a reasonable for-sale price of close to $600,000. If the property has an asking price of $700,000, the agent needs to convince you why.

Canny buyers should arm themselves with resources like Where to Live in Auckland and local sales reports from companies like Quotable Value, and be watching for the price indicators that point to tomorrow's neighbourhood success stories today.

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